Do defaults predict equity returns?
At first glance, recently redeemed European CLOs show some sort of correlation between final IRR and the number of defaults in their portfolio. But what other factors affect performance?

What do reset deals have in common?
Is it possible to predict which deals are likely to be reset next? With reset mania continuing to grip the US CLO market, we search for common factors among 2014-2021 deals that were reset

How many CLOs will be reset?
Tightening liability spreads aren’t just driving record new CLO issuance this year — they’re also triggering a wave of resets and refinancings in the US, especially for broadly syndicated CLOs

Ask the market where spreads are heading
Nothing brings the CLO market together like a good moan about the state of the arb. But according to our data, the arbitrage for new-issue US CLOs has remained in the same range for years. 

How worried should we be about defaults?
As defaults in the US loan market continue to stack up, we investigate the fallout for CLO investors by focusing on the OC tests of double B tranches across 10 years of US CLO vintages

European CLOs win out against US deals
Last month, our analysis explored the performance of US CLOs that were previously reset. We found that they delivered higher distributions than deals which weren’t reset, with the exception of the 2017 and 2018 vintages (Creditflux September 2023 — Do resets help CLOs perform better?). This article expands that analysis to the European market, and compares the performance of US BSL and EU CLO equity tranches.

Not every CLO can be a winner
The CLO industry has undeniably performed well enough to justify the plaudits it receives. But there will always be some unloved CLO tranches that slip into triple C territory

All’s well that ends well in 2020 OC tests
Swathes of CLOs failed over-collateralisation tests last year, but unlike the drawn-out recovery following the 2008 financial crisis, the return to compliance after the covid-19 crash was rapid 

Europe’s newcomers find ways to stand out
Last year’s new European CLO managers needed to provide something different for investors. In general, they’ve succeeded, with Capital Four having one of the smallest overlap figures in our data

Keep calm and buy corporate loans
Calm heads prevailed in 2018. Markets were volatile and risk retention was supposed to cause problems, but there was no need to panic and volumes went on to break records set in 2014

Risk retention was difficult, but worth it
When US skin-in-the-game rules were announced in 2014, it was clear they would be a burden for managers. But no one expected risk retention funds to bring new types of investor into CLOs

Still weighed down by 2015 oil price slump
It’s three years since the depths of the oil crisis but offshore service companies — such as the helicopter businesses that transport workers to oil rigs — are not seeing lift-off in prices or profits

Rolling the dice on Turkey and Italy
Gambling specialists with operations around the Mediterranean are facing political risks and currency falls – but there are opportunities to hit the jackpot if investors play their cards right

Tastes change in secondary trading
Our analysis of the secondary market shows that, since 2013, appetite for CLOs run by tier one managers persists through market dips and rallies.

Making it to the top: women reflect on changes in the CLO industry
As a growing number of women break the glass ceiling and take senior positions in CLO firms, Creditflux asked about the opportunities and challenges they face. By Michelle D’Souza

Drug makers: desperately seeking pain relief
With Teva’s profitable Copaxone being undermined by cheaper alternatives, the company is in need of a pick-me-up. By Euan Hagger

Managers pick spots on CLO curve
As refi volumes slowed through 2017, the term curve for CLOs steepened, leading managers to vary their deal tenors as they sought to hit the evolving sweet spot.

Creditflux guide: credit indices
The CDS indices remain one of the most liquid parts of the credit market, with billions of dollars’ worth of trades taking place each day

Creditflux guide: single name CDS
Credit default swaps aren’t used as often as they were, but they are still a quick way for investors to hedge or take a position on names in the credit market

Refinancing and reset options change the face of CLOs
The CLO market is going into overdrive, with refis, resets and new issue deals combining to give investors an unprecedented choice of maturities.

Things aren’t always what they seem
Buy CLO triple As but don’t be fooled by diversity scores; take a look at credit index futures if you need liquidity; and watch out for quasi-mid market loans appearing in CLOs

Who cares about risk retention?
Managers watching CLO spreads reach their tightest levels since the crisis had little time to fret about US risk retention

Boutique CLO managers boss secondary market
Creditflux analysis shows that, when their total assets are taken into account, small managers' CLOs are more liquid than those of large managers 

Move up the stack to avoid implosion
Pundit warns investors to be concerned about return of their principal – but senior loans may be a safe haven as credit yields are squeezed and high yield becomes crowded

Heading tighter into uncertainty
Tightening loan spreads are making the job of a CLO manager harder in both the US and Europe. But credit volatility could be on the horizon