Capex and real yields will split winners from losers in '23: BofA
Companies able to undertake capital expenditure will be the winners in 2023, while those historically most sensitive to rising real yields should inspire caution, say Bank of America strategists

High yield markets win big in 2022’s love-letter to CDS
Tradeable credit assets have suffered a rough year for liquidity and returns, but credit derivatives are among a small group of products defiantly enjoying a bumper year. 

Credit faces blind spot as borrowers enter higher default cycle: BNP Paribas
With short term rates outstripping nominal GDP growth, the credit cycle is entering its next and final stage – one in which corporate defaults will pick up but high quality borrowers should outperform

One-year CSOs come to fore as investors predict widening
With credit spreads entering the fourth quarter at much the same elevated levels they began Q3, investors are increasingly looking to bespoke tranches as a way of taking advantage while mitigating the market’s tail risks.

Go long duration in consumers and industrials: BofA
The year’s wides still lie ahead in the second half, but China reopening is bullish for consumer and industrial spreads and investors should extend duration in high-quality credit, according to Bank of America strategists

Duration, decompression and dispersion disconnects grow
Investors’ reassessment of the time they may need to hold on to positions — as well as the limited opportunity for some borrowers to access new capital — are adding to a growing list of factors causing credit market prices to disconnect

"Derivative longs versus cash corporate shorts looks attractive, especially if we see a market sell-off"
Technicals are keeping cash credit spreads tight, but as central banks reduce purchases there will be relative value opportunities

Bond pipeline builds as rocky markets thwart supply
Various factors have played into credit spreads widening at the start of 2022, but an over-supply of bond issuance is not one of them — in contrast to what was moving the market this time last year

ESG template fires up hopes of CSO issuance
2021 may not have been a year of big volume in the synthetic bespoke market, but primary business is back, and decisive inroads into environmental, social and governance (ESG)-focused issuance bode well for 2022

Citadel promotes credit head to co-CIO
Citadel has promoted its global credit head to co-chief investment officer

There's still time to pick up pennies in credit before steamroller arrives: BNP Paribas
Declining dealer inventories, rising fund cash balances, and a greater prevalence of hedging have added up to produce a credit market that is positioned too short, according to BNP Paribas strategists

Zais and BNP Paribas strike ESG breakthrough with climate change CSO
The growing theme of environmental, social and governance standards helping to revitalise the market for collateralised synthetic obligations appears to have taken a big step forward, with Zais Group and BNP Paribas partnering on a first-of-its-kind deal that could lay a template for future transactions

Long duration high yield will overcome short-term rates carnage, says BofA
Bonds with inflation-protected real yield, longer duration, and especially those in the utilities sector are among the most compelling trades amid a phase of ‘policy paranoia’, according to Bank of America credit strategists

Triple Bs gain momentum as IG buyers pick best spots
The absolute tightness of credit spreads has led many to lament their chances of delivering strong returns in 2021, while stressing the need to move down either the quality or duration curve. But even within investment grade, European and US managers are still finding pockets of value

Credit Rendezvous: And breathe...
The unanimous verdict is that credit spreads will be moving wider – they have to. But the difficulty credit fund managers face is predicting when the next sell-off comes and how sharp it will be. In the Q3 instalment of Creditflux’s Credit Rendezvous, the over-riding message from portfolio managers is that there’s little point in taking on too much risk. The report features the views of prominent credit figures including Paul Horvath (Orchard), Himani Trivedi (Nuveen), Ronnie Jaber (Onex), Graham Rainbow (Alcentra) and Michelle Russell-Dowe (Schroders). The report looks at 14 segments of the market including CLOs, direct lending, leveraged loans, distressed debt and credit derivatives.  

It's all relative: Euro CLO mezz rallies to follow month-long IG/HY compression
European credit suffered this week with Brexit talks between the UK and the EU dragging on and both sides conceding that a trade deal is unlikely to be reached by Sunday’s deadline. But European CLO tranches have held up reasonably well with mezzanine spreads tightening by almost 13% in December

Dealers power up as tranche trading hits new heights
A big year for index tranche trading has taken volume within grasping distance of full-year 2019, a post-financial crisis record, with a deepening pool of dealers adding support

They said it: "Clearing houses have proposed they will clear index tranches next year"
More liquidity for the index tranche market

Credit Rendezvous: record fiscal stimulus provides pick-me-up
Credit markets had a mini bounce-back in the second quarter as central banks poured cash into the economy. But there is great uncertainty about the effects of a second wave of coronavirus. As part of our quarterly report on credit - the Credit Rendezvous - Creditflux spoke to experts across 12 segments of the credit market

Credit traders' kickstand: Europe ascendant as high yield pipeline returns
The high yield bond primary market grinds back into gear this week just as European credit reaches an extreme point of outperformance over the US, and comes on the back of Europe’s busiest week of investment grade issuance in 18 months

Index tranche levels spike as investors advance into equity
Trading of credit index tranches is picking up, with some $61 billion worth changing hands in the space during the first quarter, according to data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation