Full circle for credit as investors navigate stormy year-opener
Credit is ending 2021's politically tumultuous first week tighter in cash bonds and flattish in CDS spreads, but performance has noticeably lagged more emphatic improvements in stocks, commodities and the record-hitting Bitcoin

Bet on beta compression - except in sub fin CDS, say BofA strategists
Beta compression will be a dominant theme in 2021 for high yield versus investment grade CDS and bonds, financial versus non-financial credit and subordinated versus senior financial bonds, say Bank or America strategists in a research note. Short volatility positions are also attractive, they add, while cautioning sub versus senior financial CDS could buck the trend

BofA sees fruits of its labour after rebuilding macro credit and index businesses
Bank of America is among the dealers that is revelling in the re-emergence of relative value credit trading this year with the bank's index tranche and index trading volumes up roughly 85% and 70% this year

Dealers power up as tranche trading hits new heights
A big year for index tranche trading has taken volume within grasping distance of full-year 2019, a post-financial crisis record, with a deepening pool of dealers adding support

High yield inflows return as appetite moves to long end
A heavy slant in preference for investment grade credit has been underscored by high grade funds recording their 20th week of inflows in a row, but high yield funds are also back to positive flow for the first time in three weeks on returning European appetite

US swaps rule relaxation brings underperformance of bank CDS
US Federal Reserve changes to the Volcker rule has caused bank stocks to surge, but credit market perceptions are less positive

Volatility trading has room to run, say strategists, as market holds firm after rally
Big intraday swings have abated from the credit market, but spreads are finely poised in their mid-range positioning between the March peaks of the crisis and pre-crisis levels. According to strategists, this leaves plenty to play for in volatility trading

Autos dominate in BofA €25 billion fallen angel watchlist
Downgrade impact for fallen angels in the coming months could be more extreme than during the 2008 financial crisis, Bank of America strategists have warned, as they identified €25 billion worth of debt at European investment grade companies most at risk of falling into high yield territory

Sovereign borrowing will crowd out corps and produce fallen angels, warns BofA
Investors should be wary of buying coporate credit that yields less than sovereign debt, Bank of America strategists have warned, predicting €20-30 billion of European fallen angel volume lies ahead as the market cycle turns

Credit funds at a glance

Boeing/Airbus dogfight widens spreads as WTO ruling exposes Europe's trade weaknesses
The World Trade Organisation’s go-ahead for the US to impose $7.5 billion of tariffs on imports from the EU has sent credit spreads sharply wider. And, according to latest credit research from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, it exposes Europe’s “Achilles heel”

Four sectors most favoured by bullish resumption of QE, say BAML strategists
Autos, healthcare, media and real estate bonds are likely to be the biggest initial beneficiaries if the European Central Bank reinvigorates its corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP) next week, say Bank of America Merrill Lynch credit strategists

High beta's time to shine in next leg of rally, says BAML
High-beta credits have yet to reward expectations they would lead the market rally in 2019, but this is about to change, according to a research note by Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Bespoke gains pull CLO buyers as market tipped to hit $100bn
Synthetic bespoke issuance could catch up with the more visible CLO market this year, say structured credit specialists

Credit spread improvement is calm before the storm, warn strategists
European and US credit markets have begun 2019 with a more buoyant tone than they ended 2018, but strategists warn that bearish factors still outweigh and suggest the overall direction of spreads this year is likely to be wider