Creditflux

Thomas Cook looks set to fly solo as default in outgoing Crossover series 31
The Determinations Committee has accepted a request to rule on whether Thomas Cook Group has triggered a bankruptcy credit event, after the UK-based travel company filed for chapter 15 protection in New York

Credit traders' kickstand: ECB rocket boosts Europe's outperformance of US
Investment grade credit index iTraxx Europe has reopened a 5bp differential with US counterpart CDX IG, boosted by the European Central Bank’s stimulus plan

China ambitions checked in final roll lists for iTraxx and CDX indices
The index roll lists for iTraxx Europe, iTraxx ex-Japan and CDX EM, have all undergone a rethink since IHS Markit published provisional lists earlier this week, with final lists showing name changes

Draghi sends European credit to 2019 tights, as Trump demands Fed response
European investment grade credit – and particularly the financial sector – surged tighter today as European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, in the penultimate meeting of his reign, unveiled a ‘whatever it takes’ stimulus

US spreads reconverge on Europe as traders hold breath for ECB
Credit markets are finely poised ahead of today’s meeting of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt today, with some positivity around US-China tariff talks allowing US spreads to gain ground as European expectation remains tempered by German recession fears

iTraxx and CDX roll provisional lists reveal effects of index overhauls
Eagerly awaited provisional lists are out for this month’s index CDS rolls, with big changes signalled across iTraxx and CDX products

CDS data snapshot: central bank positioning and index rolls drive flows
Welcome to the inaugural run of what will become a weekly insight into credit derivatives trading. Each week, Creditflux will highlight trends and dynamics from most recently available market data. We welcome feedback on measures of the market readers would like to see here in future

Credit traders' kickstand: Financials lead compression as pre-ECB and index roll bulldozers flatten spreads
Caution does not appear to be an operative word in financial markets ahead of next week’s key European Central Bank meeting, with financial names leading the way as credit spreads return to this year’s tightest levels and stocks ascend towards post-crisis peaks

Five-year bespokes movement leads to managed CSO talks
Longer dated synthetic bespoke tranche business could soon receive new impetus, with dealers and investors ramping up talks about re-establishing managed portfolios as a common feature of the CSO market.

Return to quarterly rolls advocated as CSOs hit dry patch
A marked drought of synthetic bespoke activity since July largely results from caution ahead of the September CDS roll, say investors, with some suggesting a return to quarterly rolls for single name contracts should be considered.

Credit traders' kickstand: Europe ascendant as high yield pipeline returns
The high yield bond primary market grinds back into gear this week just as European credit reaches an extreme point of outperformance over the US, and comes on the back of Europe’s busiest week of investment grade issuance in 18 months

Credit traders’ kickstand: it’s a tough time to go short
Credit derivative indices are ending the week back at very tight levels, with a re-convergence of spreads, with little appetite to bet against presumed central bank dovishness or the upcoming CDS rolls in September

Traders eye high yield CDS b-wics as index rally opens up skew
The rally back of credit derivative indices over recent sessions has caused the skew with their underlying CDS constituents to open up, leading some dealers to posit single name CDS b-wics could be on the way

Credit traders' kickstand: Basis and CDS curves take focus with long wait ahead for central bank direction
With almost a month to wait before the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve hold their next decisive meetings, a bumpier and seemingly directionless road continues in credit markets as investors show little inclination to do anything more adventurous than just hold on tight

CDX EM undergoes second rules overhaul in as many rolls
The CDX EM index will increase from 15 constituents to 18 at the next roll in September, while criteria for name inclusion and weightings are also to change

Credit traders' kickstand: volatility puts paid to primary, but pays out for relative value buyers
The persistence of credit market choppiness has brought into focus CDS/bond basis plays, options positioning, high yield dispersion and peripheral European weakness - but mainly the volatility rash has put a block on borrowers' primary market aspirations

Flat curves and decompression make waves below the surface
Hopes of using the summer slowdown to get to the beach may be tempered for credit relative value traders, where opportunities abound behind the uninspiring benchmark numbers of the slow market grind.

Net short language could force lenders to sell at a loss
Signs are growing that ‘net short’ provisions in bonds and loans are getting closer to hitting CDS investors, with two instances in recent weeks of the language expanding both in geographical and functional remit.

Back to basis (and skew) as relative value plays catch-up
Basis trades between bonds and CDS failed to gain traction during July as synthetic markets held ground or improved their position versus cash, but this is beginning to change, say market participants.

BlueMountain lands senior credit trader in New York
BlueMountain has hired an experienced trader in New York to cover credit and special situations

Credit traders' kickstand: tighter and tighter we go, as outlook gets 'worse and worse'
It’s a strange world, where the president of the European Central Bank can say the economic outlook is “getting worse and worse” as credit markets surge into new territories of tightness

Weatherford CDS auction delivers 55.5 cent pay-out to protection buyers
A credit event auction to settle Weatherford International CDS returned a final price of 44.5 cents on the dollar, lower than where bonds had been quoted and meaning a pay-out to protection buyers of 55.5 cents

Regulators delay final initial margin deadline and add extra roll-out phase
Regulators have granted a one-year reprieve to smaller counterparties from a requirement to post initial margin on derivative trades, while introducing an additional implementation phase. But while a relief for large numbers of firms struggling to meet the deadline, the concession still ignores calls from industry bodies to deploy a higher final capture threshold

Final list of deliverables published for Weatherford CDS auction
There will be 17 notes deliverable into an auction on Thursday to settle Weatherford International CDS, the Americas Determinations Committee has confirmed

Morgan Stanley joins participating bidders for Weatherford CDS auction
Morgan Stanley has been added to the list of participating bidders for an auction next week to settle CDS referencing Weatherford International CDS, with the Americas Determinations Committee also confirming 17 deliverable obligations on the supplemental list