CLO bond buckets balloon post-Volcker amendments, says BofA
CLO holdings of bonds in their portfolios has grown to $15 billion in the two years since changes to the Volcker rule allowed CLOs to hold the assets, according to new research from Bank of America

Fitch raises low end of its default forecasts for US leveraged loans and high yield
Fitch Ratings has increased the low end of its US leveraged loan and high yield default forecast ranges to reflect growing macroeconomic headwinds

US and European CLO metrics diverge, finds Barclays
CLO spreads saw a month-on-month move wider in December while key portfolio metrics such as weighted average rating factor (warf) and triple C buckets deteriorated in the US. However, European portfolio metrics showed some improvement 

CLO triple A tiering grew to 48bp by December, says PennMutual
The triple A spread differential between top and lower tier CLO managers widened to 48 basis points by the end of 2022 from just 18bp at the start of the year, according to new research published by PennMutual Asset Management

Largarde snowballs puncture complacent calm and shocks spreads wider
Credit markets are ending the week on a big push wider, after European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde delivered the surprise that had been missing from other central bank messaging

US CLO investors express cautious optimism for 2023
After a turbulent year in 2022, US CLO investors are sounding a cautiously bullish tone heading into 2023

BofA withdraws forecast for US banks to return to CLO investing en masse in 2023
Bank of America has withdrawn its forecast that US banks will make any signficant return to investing in CLOs in 2023 following comments from the Federal Reserve's vice chair for supervision suggesting that capital requirements could increase further next year

Major fund withdrawals undermine credit momentum
Credit funds are extending their run of inflows into the end of the year, but investment grade momentum took a dent last week due to investors in one big fund pulling their money

European CLO equity outperforms single Bs amid high return dispersion: Bank of America
European CLO returns have been negative across the capital structure this year, a research paper from Bank of America has found. Losses have been softened however due to an increasing three-month Euribor rate, high carry relative to corporates and relatively stable equity returns.

$90 billion gross CLO issuance in 2023 with manager base to shrink, says BofA
Bank of America is forecasting $90 billion gross issuance of CLOs in 2023, split between $80 billion backed by broadly syndicated loans and $10 billion backed by middle market assets

US CLO tranches had best month of year in November: Barclays
CLO debt investors enjoyed their best month of returns for 2022 in November, with triple As returning an annualised excess return of 12% and triple Bs returning 37% on the month

Capex and real yields will split winners from losers in '23: BofA
Companies able to undertake capital expenditure will be the winners in 2023, while those historically most sensitive to rising real yields should inspire caution, say Bank of America strategists

Rebuke for optimism as US jobs send market bulls running for cover
Investors’ determination to maintain an optimistic outlook on US Federal Reserve policy hit a point of reckoning on Friday, with hot US jobs numbers adding weight to committee members’ message that there is still a lot more work for them to do

Euro CLOs have better 2023 entry point than US in $140 billion issuance year: Barclays
CLO performance and issuance may have to wait until the second half of next year for improvement, say Barclays credit strategists in a 2023 outlook piece. But Europe could fare better than the US given starting levels in a year the market faces some challenging regulatory hurdles

Euro CLO new issuance could reach €22 billion in 2023, says BofA
European CLO new issuance will reach €22 billion in 2023, strategists at Bank of America expect, while refinancing / reset volume should reach €3 billion under a ‘base case’ scenario

Powell outlook brings risk buyers out in droves, but reality check looks soon to follow
Comments by US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday on the pace of future rate hikes have prompted a sharp rally across global financial markets, including credit. But dissenting voices have already begun to point out the enthusiasm is likely overdone

Public credit markets "most attractive for 15 years" says Wamco
The US Federal Reserve is helping to create the potential for the "most attractive opportunity in public credit markets in the last 15 years", according to a research note published by Western Asset Management

CLO double Bs offer attractive entry point despite likely loan downgrades, says Neuberger
CLO double Bs offer investors value despite the risk of deteriorating credit quality in the leveraged loan market

Credit Suisse tests investor nerves as market preps for Fed-focused week
Credit Suisse, which has been subjected to another week of intense scrutiny, is heading into the weekend with its credit spreads extending wider, after warning on losses and undertaking a capital hike

Swiss bank looks to plug holes but investors are hun-gruyere for risk
Credit Suisse is a rare, worrisome cloud in an otherwise brightening sky this week, as Europe extends its tightening trend in credit with the US standing at ease for the Thanksgiving holiday

Outsized corporate rally puts financials RV in focus
The week is ending with resumption of credit’s recent rally after a brief pause, and Europe once again taking the lead over the US

Things are looking up... for curve steepener trades: Barclays
Investment grade credit index curves look too flat, say Barclays strategists – and that makes it a compelling time to consider steepener trades in Europe and the US

European outperformance creates index options trading mismatch: Barclays
The recent outperformance of European credit over US has shifted the value of iTraxx index options, but CDX index volatility premiums stand out for having hit a new low

Financials offer relative value opportunities after synthetic credit overshoot: BNP Paribas
A technical squeeze, driven by investor risk appetite but also short covering, has taken some parts of the synthetic credit to a point where cash bonds look to offer better relative value

Credit euphoria follows CPI, but analysts warn of comedown
Softer than expected US inflation numbers have ignited a spectacular rally in financial markets. But strategists and economists warn against the exuberance, arguing more pain is likely on the way