Don't expect CDO upgrades any time soon, warns Moody's
Moody’s warns that improving trends for underlying assets will not result in large upgrades for CDOs this year
It's a hard choice as a 'prediction' is a best estimate of what is going to happen and a credit rating is a probability (usually a small one if it is a high rating) of something happening and so has more to do with the volatility around the prediction. Moody's position could be interpreted as we think the default rate is going to be 3.4% but we see a small possibility we could be way wrong
Rating agencies always have a hard time maintaining consistency among different divisions. While the economists predict falling interest rates the CDO folks see the glass half empty.
Well, if Moody's is right on default rates, their senior class ratings will often be wrong if they were downgraded from Aaa. More likely, Moody's is wrong on default rates. Note Merrill's (and others) "twin peak"/"maturiy wall" scenario for default rates, which would make Moody's junior class CLO ratings more accurate!
CLOs
- Ares refinances 2019 vintage CLO less than 1 hour ago
- Creditflux welcomes new deputy editor less than 1 hour ago
- European CLO triple As hit 146 15 hours ago
- Benefit Street prices new US BSL CLO 16 hours ago
- Ares prices its first BDC CLO 16 hours ago
Comment by: Douglas Watson. Posted 14 years ago [2010-02-25 16:52:15]