Duration, decompression and dispersion disconnects grow
Investors’ reassessment of the time they may need to hold on to positions — as well as the limited opportunity for some borrowers to access new capital — are adding to a growing list of factors causing credit market prices to disconnect

Wide yields mean high times again for corporate hybrids
Prolonged disruption in financial markets has painted an ever-bleaker picture for credit fund returns and flows in 2022

Macro drivers set to give lift to CDS tranche trading
Credit index tranches look to be on course for a busy year, with volumes robust so far in 2022, despite key relative value trading themes having not delivered so far

Banks and loans to benefit in 2022 as safe havens dwindle
Safe havens and sector pitfalls are among some of the top considerations for portfolio managers this year, as a consensus forms that credit could suffer versus other asset classes

Relative value traders seize on fleeting mismatches
The volatility that hit credit markets from mid-November has produced rare opportunities for relative value traders after a dearth for 12 months

Zais and BNP Paribas strike ESG breakthrough with climate change CSO
The growing theme of environmental, social and governance standards helping to revitalise the market for collateralised synthetic obligations appears to have taken a big step forward, with Zais Group and BNP Paribas partnering on a first-of-its-kind deal that could lay a template for future transactions

Broadening SRT market defies spread compression
Credit spreads are close to all time tights — high yield, courtesy of CDX HY, recently hit its tightest level since January 2007 — but the significant risk transfer (SRT) market is one of the few pockets of credit where pricing is wide of pre-covid levels

China teaches tough lessons to foreign investors
China’s regulatory crackdown on some of its fastest-growing industries created shockwaves that have reverberated widely, dragging on US and European credit at the end of July.

Coronavirus delta dilemma puts reflation trades into reverse
Concern over the covid-19 delta variant dented investor optimism in July and looks set to hold back credit spread improvement in August, as focus turns to rising cases in the US and Germany

It's all relative: IG index drifts wide of 50bp as European CLO triple Bs outperform
US investment grade credit has been an underperformer in the last few weeks with CDX IG trading north of 50 basis points again. But European CLO triple Bs are looking strong while there is a stronger bid for two- to three-year paper in the US

Credit Rendezvous: And breathe...
The unanimous verdict is that credit spreads will be moving wider – they have to. But the difficulty credit fund managers face is predicting when the next sell-off comes and how sharp it will be. In the Q3 instalment of Creditflux’s Credit Rendezvous, the over-riding message from portfolio managers is that there’s little point in taking on too much risk. The report features the views of prominent credit figures including Paul Horvath (Orchard), Himani Trivedi (Nuveen), Ronnie Jaber (Onex), Graham Rainbow (Alcentra) and Michelle Russell-Dowe (Schroders). The report looks at 14 segments of the market including CLOs, direct lending, leveraged loans, distressed debt and credit derivatives.  

It's all relative: CDX HY touches record tights but junior US CLO tranches leak wider
Credit spreads are marching tighter, but someone forgot to tell the CLO market. European and US CDS spreads have moved in step with each other for the most part with investment grade and high yield tightening 4-6% in the last week, whereas CLOs have been losing ground

CSOs and index tranches reach sticking point as correlation gets rich
Credit correlation trading looks to have reached a point of inflexion, as the previous bull run at the lower end of index capital stacks has given way to caution over how much further spread compression can go. At the same time, bespoke tranche business is gaining interest but equity remains stickier to sell at the market's ultra-low spread and volatility levels

Credit Rendezvous: ready and waiting
In Creditflux's quarterly review of credit, portfolio managers tell us that Inflation is likely to nudge higher but they are optimistic because dispersion will pick up and windows of volatility will emerge, rather than elongated phases of stress 

"IG investors might want to rethink the instrument, but they need not fear rising rates just yet"
In his latest column for Creditflux, Cheyne's Duncan Sankey writes that the sharp rise in 10-year US treasuries could be positive for investment grade investors, but value is in CDS rather than bonds 

Technicals support IG while investors hunt for rising stars
Investment grade credit spreads have been stubbornly tight for the past six-months, but investors see positive technical factors that make lower-rated bonds appealing

It's all relative: CLOs march tighter as macro traders open positive CDS skews
Credit default swaps are back near where they started the year after giving up their early-February gains amid a rise in government bonds. CDS curves steepened over the past month and macro hedging has left indices trading with positive skews. But CLOs paint a calmer picture in which spreads have inched tighter  

It's all relative: CLO spreads explore record tights as credit indices hit impasse
CLO spreads are grinding to ever tighter levels, despite a flattish week for credit in which corporate credit indices have ended up more or less unchanged

It's all relative: CLOs are lagging no more, as Carlyle deal drags market tighter
“CLOs are lagging” has been a much repeated refrain over the last nine months. But Carlyle Group has this week produced a US CLO that has dragged spreads to their tightest point in three years so that, rather than comparing CLOs to pre-covid levels, they should be assessed against early 2018

It's all relative: senior CLO tranches tighten 18% in Europe as CDS indices sit out rally

US looks for stronger open after sell off
US credit is opening slightly stronger on Thursday, after its sharp Wednesday rout, prompted by Federal Reserve messaging, carried over forcefully into Asian and European markets

Credit Rendezvous: heading for homes
Fund managers in structured credit, real assets and distressed are bullish on the prospects for residential housing in 2021. Elsewhere, niche royalty-based strategies are in favour and although a CLO repricing wave is expected, it may not be easy to execute resets. For more, read our 13-page quarterly report on credit.