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"Forget the World Cup, the macro-economic catastrophe cup has more well-matched contenders"
1 year ago
Government bonds are rallying in some quarters, but the odds are on more stress feeding into credit -
"Short memories forget how rampant anti-EU sentiment was before Mario Draghi became Italy’s prime minister"
1 year ago
Unrest in Italy threatens to escalate into a bigger crisis than Greece in 2012 -
"If anything is to be salvaged from the rest of 2022, the economy needs a hero — and quickly"
1 year ago
Something has gotta give as a recession looms in the US. Might it be energy? -
Real estate is about to get real bad: Welshcake
1 year ago
The extent of disconnect between real estate and what other markets have been experiencing is enough to convince me a whole other layer of economic mayhem is on the way. But investors in credit, for all their current pain, could still end up shining if they are prepared -
"The shutdown of economies in the pandemic showed it’s better to suffer up front"
1 year ago
Rather than prolong the agony, central banks would be better off bunching their planned rate hikes into one -
"It’ll take something special to drag my attention away from Depp/Heard, but Jerome Powell could just do it"
1 year ago
It’s not easy letting go of the past, but May heralds the start of something new in credit -
"Credit investors should interpret 100,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border as worth pricing in"
2 years ago
Welshcake tells credit portfolio managers to under-promise and over-deliver in 2022 -
"No-one talks about the part oil price surges played in the 2008/9 global financial crisis"
2 years ago
Investors eyeing inflation shocks and supply chain disruption should instead be paying attention to the brewing energy crisis -
“For Creditflux this will be an extra special occasion - the publication is marking its 20th year in business”
2 years ago
A colourful train journey featuring Alice in Wonderland, Yoda and Top Trumps puts Welshcake in mind of the CLO Symposium -
"China can act how it wants and when it wants in curbing the ambitions of tech firms… but sell offs tend to be opportunities for new buyer
2 years ago
China's latest moves to rein in private enterprise with new rules for education providers have certainly intensified the regulation risk landscape - but Welshcake asks whether this forthrightness could be instructive -
"Pain is on the way: spreads are too tight, while compression and carry are done. But what if it's not?"
2 years ago
Welshcake reminds us that mid-cycle portfolio management is a funny old game -
"In the afternoon I awoke from a pile of willow leaves to discover we had created a Welsh ether-based token"
2 years ago
A localised crypto-currency boom and bust cycle teaches Welshcake (again) that everything becomes correlated in a downturn -
CLO guys shouldn't feel quite as self-important as us Welsh... But you are in a pretty amazing spot
3 years ago
CLO portfolio managers should be emboldened by recent events to push for ESG strategies -
Cessation of activity mid-December is an opportunity to switch off… and let the mind wander
3 years ago
Welshcake is grateful for a lull in credit markets. The downtime has inspired him to dream up a CLO play -
I foresee various spooky spectacles hitting our screens - and your long portfolios
3 years ago
Welshcake is settling in for a horror movie marathon. But in the previews he sees monsters lurking behind tight credit spreads -
The surge in index tranche trading has resulted in a deep, liquid and nuanced set of market dynamics
3 years ago
Welshcake emerges from his bunker to find CLOs still standing and the CSO market getting back to business -
2020 is a massive opportunity for change - and clinging to past achievements won't wash
3 years ago
Statues don’t serve much of a purpose. It’s time to move on — and credit investors can and should be part of the movement -
Where are the gloating I-told-you-so columnists who claimed CLOs would bring global destruction?
3 years ago
We have seen a measured response to the coronavirus crisis: fund managers aren’t collapsing and investors are not shunning CLOs -
Miscast as the villains of the 2008 crisis, CDS may prove to be the heroes of 2020
4 years ago
Credit default swaps provide investors with valuable signals on the depth of the coronavirus crisis -
2020 will be about relative value, watching for idiosyncratic risk and a good deal of running away
4 years ago
Investors must embrace change — it’s time for structured credit investors to look beyond vanilla CLOs -
Don’t get too comfortable. The truth is there are hundreds of things that could be catalysts for a sell-off
4 years ago
Just because there’s no obvious sign of a sell-off, doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen. Often, market moves defy logic -
It may seem a bit rich for Welshcake to tell staid CLO investors they need to be more sensible
4 years ago
Bespokes are the next big thing — and you’d be wise to get involved -
Helicopter money is more productive than sponsoring the next bout of company share buybacks
4 years ago
The ECB is set to recommence its asset purchase programme, but what’s wrong with putting money directly into the hands of people? -
What price lender integrity if myriad interpretations mean nobody knows where they stand?
4 years ago
Net short language is seeping into loan documentation. The problem is that some funds may not know their net position -
Welshcake: Sirius has made a strong move in CDS - if it hits the right targets
4 years ago
The most tragic of human traits is the proclivity for our inventions to come back and bite us
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