Barclays Capital analysts point out in their most recent European Credit Alpha report that Greek government bonds have been trading substantially wider than credit default swaps on the sovereign. This creates large potential returns on negative basis packages, especially if there is a credit event in the near term.
The negative basis between five-year bonds and five-year credit default swaps has recently been as great as 200 basis points. However, the basis can be even greater for a basis packaging combining short-dated credit default swaps and long dated bonds, says the report. The old-style restructuring used in Greek sovereign credit default swaps means that obligations of any maturity up to 30 years out can be delivered into any credit default swap.


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Bear in mind that the negative basis trade requires funding the long position in the cash bond. It may well be that the apparent 200 bp cushion in the 5-year trade is partially or fully absorbed by the funding (eg, the funding may be L+200). Repo lenders may not be giving good terms for Greek debt as collateral.