Forecasts for speculative-grade default rate at 23% by 2010, says S&P

A report published today by Standard & Poor’s estimates that the three-year cumulative default rate between 2008 and 2010 among speculative-grade nonfinancials will increase to 23.2%. Based on observations and analyses of historical, three-year default cycles, S&P’s estimate debunks the myth that recent events in the financial sector will have no lasting consequences upon nonfinancial firms. Should the estimate be accurate, a record number of defaults will occur in 2010, with 200 out of 353 defaults occuring in the second half of 2009 and beginning of 2010.
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