Structured

Double B CLO turbos offer value, says Barclays Capital

Thursday, March 19, 2009

In a credit strategy report entitled "Turbo BB CLO tranches: don't miss the trees for the forest", Barclays Capital researchers warn investors not to ignore the value of double B turbo tranches. Many CLOs include a feature that diverts cashflow to pay down the double B tranche ahead of more senior tranches in some circumstances. Typically, principal repayments are accelerated for the double B notes when the double B overcollateralisation test is failing but when the triple B OC test is not.

As the report points out, during this narrow window (of around 1% on average), the double Bs could receive a sizeable repayment, especially at a time when covenant waivers are increasing the spread on the portfolio.

Barclays Capital estimates that the turbo feature should add between 10 and 20 points to the value of a typical CLO double B tranche. However, the value of the turbo is highly dependent on the level of defaults and downgrades in the portfolio. "The risk is that a systemic increase in defaults and downgrades could cause the OC tests on both the double B and triple B tranches to fail simultaneously, rendering the turbo feature worthless," notes the report.

It recommends buying a diversified portfolio of these tranches.


<< END >>
Comment by: Anonymous. Posted 3 years ago

3 of the 5 BBs i have positions in turbo'd in march and 1 of the others looks very likely to turbo (and not PIK) in a few weeks. the last is still passing all the tests.
Agree that many are not that likely, but these are not all created equal and managers can 'control' this somewhat

Comment by: Anonymous. Posted 3 years ago

Laughable (the report, not the comments)

Comment by: Anonymous. Posted 3 years ago

Agree. With the new rating agency methodology/downgrades kicking in, there ought to be more value at the top of the capital structure

Comment by: Anonymous. Posted 3 years ago

The narrow window is narrower than most CLO's average single position in the portfolio. That means the strategy could be a single default away from getting thrown right out that narrow window. Unless all other value plays are exhausted, I'd stay away from this one!
Incidentally, how does the potential gain compare to a the cost of a first-to-default contract on a CLO portfolio these days?

Comment by: Anonymous. Posted 3 years ago

Thread the needle strategy for investing. Narrow window indeed! Defaults are sky-rocketing, most CLO funds will blow right through the narrow window. And all this for a potential 10-20% gain. Unless I'm missing something,a pretty bad risk/reward.

BarCap analysts ought to devote more time to evaluating prospects for AAA CLOs, where there are far more interesting dynamics at work.

Recent bond & loan issuance

>>More information from the Issuer Tracker

CFlux secondary 
CLO index levels:

Index
21 May
CFlux USD AAA  ↑ 96.2
CFlux USD AA  ↑

88.3

CFlux USD A  ↓ 84.1
CFlux USD BBB  ↓ 75.3
CFlux USD BB  ↓

74.1

CFlux USD EQ  ↑ 77.5

 

>> More information & historical data