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The rate of high yield defaults in Europe continued to decline in August, according to the latest Moody’s monthly default report. The rolling 12-month European default rate declined to 4.8% in August from 6.2% in July and is well down from the 9.6% rate recorded in August 2009.
The same pattern holds globally, as the global high yield default rate eased from 5.5% in July to 5% in August, compared to a rate of 12.3% a year ago.
Moody’s projects that the global default rate is likely to continue its downward trend for the rest of 2010, reaching 2.7% by the end of the year, and hitting 2% a year from now.


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Warning: The Moody's forecast of 2.7% for 2010 and 2% for the year ending Aug 2011 is totally dependent on blue skies ahead for the engines of the global economy!