In its 30 January credit strategy piece, JP Morgan observes that both high grade and and high yield curves remain at their most inverted levels, and are expected to remain so. However, regression analysis suggests the current 10-year-five-year curve is too inverted given the 5Y average spread of 2000bp.
According to JP Morgan's figures for last week, high-grade 10-year to five-year CDS remained flat on the week at -28 basis points, while high-yield curves steepened moderately to -392bp.
Steepest and flattest single name CDS credit curves
| Steepest | Ticker | 5y CDS sprd | 10y CDS sprd | 1 wk chg | Opportunity | HG/HY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Plan Excel Rlty | NXL | 5000 | 5000 | 0 | 750 | HY |
| Clear Channel | CCU | 5442 | 5204 | -238 | 117 | HY |
| Station Casinos | STN | 10802 | 9662 | -1074 | 583 | HY |
| American Axle | AXL | 6150 | 5765 | 120 | 551 | HY |
| Idearc | IAR | 19249 | 16485 | 0 | 520 | HY |
| Flattest | ||||||
| Visteon | VC | 15679 | 12158 | -1927 | -917 | HY |
| GM | GM | 8541 | 6436 | 182 | -770 | HY |
| Chemtura | CEM | 5500 | 4125 | -224 | -544 | HY |
| Ford Motor | F | 5894 | 4561 | 100 | -438 | HY |
| Genworth Financial | GNW | 3000 | 2130 | 42 | -437 | HG |


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